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[Contest] The number

August is coming to an end, and for most of us, that means Summer is already over, as we trudge back behind our desks for another year of work and, maybe, if we find the time and inclination, some learning in-between DOFUS sessions.

thenumber-event.PNG


Speaking of learning, how about a little mathematics and logic contest before September ruins Summer once and for all? No, don't leave now, there's a full Social Netbwork set to win!

Now that we have your attention, here's how it works: just click on this link right here and fill out the survey. Simple, isn't it?

Here's where it gets tricky: the winner will be the one who will have entered the lowest whole numbercomprised between 1 and 1 million... as long as no one else enters the same number!

Can you figure out what will be the lowest number that nobody else will think about? You have until Monday, September 4th, at 17:00 (Paris Time) to answer the survey and find out!

Only one entry per person.

 

(I thought this looked like a pretty fun and easy contest, so thought I'd share - Sun)

 

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How is this possibly mathematics and logic, it's just plain luck?

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Technically, optimising your guess could be based on applied game theory, which is a branch of mathematics.

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Well yeah but, even if you apply that (afaik, it assumes some sort of strategy.), there's no real logic or strategy here other than not to pick a number you estimate surely nobody will go above. I think it's pure luck because the number of possible participants and actual participants is unknown, which makes the decision to pick a number within a reasonable restriction (0 to 50k maybe) arbitrary.

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if game theory actually affected luck based things, it would look like this:

 

what's the real chance for any1 to drop vulbis??

 



it's 50%, either u do drop or u do not drop

gP4JLXE.jpg

g43m th30ry w/ ye boi qued

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3 hours ago, bobeur said:

Well yeah but, even if you apply that (afaik, it assumes some sort of strategy.), there's no real logic or strategy here other than not to pick a number you estimate surely nobody will go above. I think it's pure luck because the number of possible participants and actual participants is unknown, which makes the decision to pick a number within a reasonable restriction (0 to 50k maybe) arbitrary.

 

Clearly you don't pick a single digit or double digit number. Those are all already taken by someone who thinks they're clever enough to be the only one to do it. Also as clear is to not pick 1 million or a sextuple digit number. Then you're left with triple digit to quintuple digit numbers, and that's where it gets a bit chancier. You can do some rough calculations based on total playerbase and percentage of it that you think will play in order to estimation distribution of number choices - I think it's easy to see that the number choices from 100-99999 will be weighted towards the lower numbers, so as you want to avoid repeats, you try and pick a number that's reasonably high, but not pushing the extremes (say not above 50000 but not below 8000 - different bounds can be made based on different assumptions of distribution, which depends on the data you can get). 

 

It does require luck, bob, but there's more strategy than you think.

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but what if it includes the reverse psychology aka every1 afraid of taking a small number and then yolo 1 crazy dude wins with a 1-digit number h

 

ofc i dont advise u to take number 1 (cuz i rekt it mdr), but there isnt as much dofus players thus numbers chosen as one might think

 

p.s. remember when ghost scouter was selling? x10000 is the total number across all servers including french nerds, ppl thought it'll be out of stock in 2 days, but nop it was selling for several weeks

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That exam question is an application of the tragedy of the commons, which is another interesting game theory/economic concept.

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Let's get the fun started. I've used some alts to tip the first 11 eligible numbers.

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https://www.dofus.com/en/forum/2-general-discussion/330688-contest-number?page=1#entry1342296

This contest is now over!

As a reminder, the goal was to submit the lowest whole number (no decimals) between 1 and 1 Million which was not submitted by anyone else.

Without further ado, let us congratulate our winner: choooks, who picked 80! He shall receive his prize shortly.

Interestingly enough, 80 is not the lowest number that wasn't submitted at least twice: this honour falls to the number 45, which was not submitted at all!

Also, the number that was submitted the most (70 times!) was... 1! Looks like 70 people failed to follow your advice, Mesaer!

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And I can now reveal that I could not be bothered to play at all. (In terms of strategy, I would've had to go in much earlier with announcements and also post them on official forums in all languages.)

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